The Latest:
15-day retrospective on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
At the start, people predicted that Kyiv would fall within 2-3 days, and that Ukraine itself would soon follow. This did not happen, in line with my (layman) predictions.
We're more than two weeks in at this point, yet Russia still hasn't managed to achieve a single major objective. Their air force is floundering, the sky is still contested, the "mega-column" above Kyiv is stuck, the Kharkiv offensive stalled, and the landing ships meant to attack Odessa were withdrawn to Sevastopol, because the assault on Mykolaiv, a pre-requisite for Odessa, is yet to happen. Mariupol still hasn't been taken either.
Even smaller objectives, like taking Chernihiv and Sumy are yet to be achieved.
All the while Russians are suffering from chronic supply shortages, both due to terrible logistics and Ukrainian harassment.
Not to mention the Russian economy being ruined by sanctions, plus the invasion itself burning away their reserves.
The icing on the cake is low Russian morale and their seemingly obsolete equipment, pitted against state of the art Ukrainian ATGM gear.
In short, the "invasion" is rapidly transitioning into a general clusterfuck.
And yet many "analysts" seem to be oblivious to this. They keep repeating how Russia didn't stall; they're just reorganizing for the Real Offensive™, this mythical, overwhelming attack where the Russian army suddenly becomes competent, and Ukraine does fall in a few days.
People who talk like that believed the hype. If anything, this clusterfuck has shown us:
- the obsolescence of total war
- the power of sanctions in a global economy
- the systemic rot permeating the entire Russian military
- the importance of logistics, and the consequences of the lack thereof
These are all deep systemic problems that either cannot be solved Russia, or should have been solved long before. None of them will go away, while all of them will continue working against them.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: I just don't see how Russia can win this war.
They're running out of time, money and ammunition. Ukraine is a huge country, about the size of Texas, while Kyiv is as big as New York City. This means taking them requires lots of time, money and ammunition. Do we see the problem here?
Ironically, the indiscriminate bombing of cities Russia has resorted to is an even more costly adventure, swallowing ungodly amounts of ammo and money. The harder they go, the sooner they run out. And they will.
All this being said, we're in for a brutal couple of weeks. Lots of people will die, cities will be leveled. But at the end of it all, Ukraine will survive, while the Russian invasion is set to collapse under its own weight.
These are my thoughts on the current situation. I might be wrong, but I don't think so! Let's just say I'd be very surprised if I were.