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Gerrymandering explained

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Offline Lois

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on: February 26, 2017, 07:14:13 AM
This is the best explanation of gerrymandering you will ever see
How to steal an election: a visual guide

By Christopher Ingraham



Gerrymandering -- drawing political boundaries to give your party a numeric advantage over an opposing party -- is a difficult process to explain. If you find the notion confusing, check out the chart above --  adapted from one posted to Reddit this weekend -- and wonder no more.

Suppose we have a very tiny state of fifty people. Thirty of them belong to the Blue Party, and 20 belong to the Red Party. And just our luck, they all live in a nice even grid with the Blues on one side of the state and the Reds on the other.

Now, let's say we need to divide this state into five districts. Each district will send one representative to the House to represent the people. Ideally, we want the representation to be proportional: if 60 percent of our residents are Blue and 40 percent are Red, those five seats should be divvied up the same way.

Fortunately, because our citizens live in a neatly ordered grid, it's easy to draw five lengthy districts  -- two for the Reds , and three for the Blues. Voila! Perfectly proportional representation, just as the Founders intended. That's grid 1 above, "perfect representation."

Now, let's say instead that the Blue Party controls the state government, and they get to decide how the lines are drawn. Rather than draw districts vertically they draw them horizontally, so that in each district there are six Blues and four Reds. You can see that in grid 2 above, "compact but unfair."

With a comfortable Blue majority in this state, each district elects a blue candidate to the House. The Blues win 5 seats and the Reds don't get a single one. Oh well! All's fair in love and politics.

In the real world, the results of this latter scenario are similar to what we see in New York, though there are no good examples of where a majority party gives itself a clean-sweep. In 2012, Democrats received 66 percent of the popular House vote. But they won 21 out of 27 House seats, or three more than you'd expect from the popular vote alone. And from a purely geometric standpoint, New York's congressional districts aren't terribly irregular -- at least not compared to other states.

Finally, what if the Red Party controls the state government? The Reds know they're at a numeric disadvantage. But with some creative boundary drawing --  the type you see in grid 3, "neither compact nor fair" -- they can slice the Blue population up such that they only get a majority in two districts. So despite making up 40 percent of the population, the Reds win 60 percent of the seats. Not bad!

In the real world, this is similar to what we see in Pennsylvania. In 2012, Democrats won 51 percent of the popular House vote. But the only won 5 out of 18 House seats -- fewer than one third. This was because when Pennsylvania Republicans redrew the state's Congressional districts, they made highly irregular districts that look like the one below, PA-7, one of the most geographically irregular districts in the nation.



Now, this exercise is of course a huge simplification. In the real world people don't live in neatly-ordered grids sorted by political party. But for real-world politicians looking to give themselves an advantage at redistricting time, the process is exactly the same, as are the results for the parties that gerrymander successfully.

The easiest way to solve this issue, of course, would be to take the redistricting process out of human hands entirely. There is already software capable of doing just that -- good luck getting any politicians to agree to it, though.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/?postshare=4351486113260535&tid=ss_gp&utm_term=.1a3b5b9b95bf
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 07:16:49 AM by Lois »



Offline Northwest

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Reply #1 on: February 26, 2017, 09:18:23 AM
Oh, yes; you're right. That illustrates it very well, and it's a difficult concept to get your arms around.

Thanks.



Offline Lois

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Reply #2 on: February 26, 2017, 07:51:02 PM
In short, gerrymandering screws representative democracy.  Both sides have done it and it is not good.   



Offline watcher1

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Reply #3 on: March 07, 2017, 08:06:14 PM
In short, gerrymandering screws representative democracy.  Both sides have done it and it is not good.   

No it isn't.  Gerrymandering takes the vote away from us and instead has the politician control our vote. It has become so bad that many races now have no opponents because of the way districts have been drawn.  I am hoping someday the Supreme Court will weigh in on this attack at this highly partisan redistricting.

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Offline Northwest

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Reply #4 on: March 07, 2017, 08:08:21 PM
Watcher, I'm pretty sure that you and Lois are making exactly the same point.



Offline watcher1

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Reply #5 on: March 07, 2017, 08:17:17 PM
Watcher, I'm pretty sure that you and Lois are making exactly the same point.

True, though Lois likes to tie me up and I prefer more peaceful ways..... ;D

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Offline Lois

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Reply #6 on: March 08, 2017, 03:58:31 AM
I only tie up the willing  ;D



Offline watcher1

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Reply #7 on: March 09, 2017, 12:18:37 AM
I only tie up the willing  ;D

Granted I was willing after taking some hits off that funny stuff you were smoking.  8)

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Offline Lois

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Reply #8 on: October 04, 2017, 06:32:07 AM
The Most Serious Challenge to Gerrymandering in Modern Times Reaches the Supreme Court
A Wisconsin case could break the grip of partisans on the process that defines whether elections are competitive.
By John Nichols

The American Civil Liberties Union is flexing the organizing and campaigning muscles it has developed since Donald Trump assumed the presidency to address the structural challenges that undermined American democracy before the 2016 presidential election.

The ACLU’s ambitious “Let People Vote” project will work in states across the country to strengthen democracy by extending early-voting periods, making voter registration more accessible, restoring voting rights for disenfranchised communities, and combating “attempts at voter suppression, such as discriminatory voter ID requirements and voter purges.”

Those vital initiatives will make it easier to vote. But the ACLU is not stopping there. It is also seeking reforms that will make voting more meaningful by restoring competition to legislative and congressional elections.

“One way politicians have been able to reshape the electorate to their liking is through the redistricting process,” explains the ACLU’s Brian Tashman. “Gerrymandering is done to protect incumbent lawmakers, especially when they are members of the party in power. This practice creates legislative districts that are so uncompetitive that it discourages voter participation.”

The focus on gerrymandering is essential, and the Supreme Court will take up the issue Tuesday, hearing oral argument on a Wisconsin case that could ultimately transform elections nationwide. The legal scholars and voting-rights activists who brought the case, now dubbed Gill v. Whitford, have asserted that Wisconsin’s state Assembly and state Senate district maps were rigged by Governor Scott Walker’s hyper-partisan legislative allies to lock in the majorities they gained in the wave election of 2010. Republicans gerrymandered legislative district lines so aggressively that in the next election, even as Wisconsin Democrats won 174,000 more votes than Republicans in races for state Assembly seats, Republicans won a 60-39 majority in the chamber.

The democratic disconnect illustrated by those numbers has strengthened the argument that the gerrymandering of district lines denies voters their right to participate in fair and competitive elections. And jurists have begun to accept that something must be done to make elections more reflective of the popular will. As the lead plaintiff in the Wisconsin case, longtime University of Wisconsin law professor William Whitford, says: “In a democracy citizens are supposed to choose their legislators. In Wisconsin, legislators have chosen their voters.”

Last year, a three-judge federal-court panel declared that the Republican maps were unconstitutional because they violated the Equal Protection Clause and freedom-of-association rights that extend from the First Amendment. For the first time in more than three decades, a federal court had invalidated legislative district lines because of partisan bias. Whitford has described the panel’s decisions in the case as “truly historic,” and said they “could have a monumental impact in ensuring that voters’ voices are heard across the nation, regardless of party.”

Change this monumental will not come without a fight. Governor Walker’s allies—a Republican-state attorney general and Republican legislative leaders—moved immediately to challenge the determination of the federal judges that the maps had “secured for Republicans a lasting Assembly majority…by allocating votes among the newly created districts in such a way that, in any likely electoral scenario, the number of Republican seats would not drop below 50 percent.”

Now the Wisconsin case comes before the US Supreme Court and, despite that court’s conservative bias in recent years on voting-rights matters, Whitford and others are hopeful for its prospects. Why? Because Justice Anthony Kennedy, the key swing vote on the high court, has in the past stated that “If courts refuse to entertain any claims of partisan gerrymandering, the temptation to use partisan favoritism in districting in an unconstitutional manner will grow.” If Kennedy sides with more liberal members of the court, a blow could be struck against gerrymandering—not just in Wisconsin but, via the respect-for-democracy standard that could be set, nationally.

“We want to see fair maps and an honest political system, and if our win is upheld, we will see positive change across the country,” says Mary Lynne Donohue, a plaintiff in the Wisconsin case, which has been highlighted and supported by the Fair Elections Project, Common Cause in Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, Citizen Action of Wisconsin, the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin, Organizing for America, Grassroots Northshore, and the Wisconsin branch of the American Civil Liberties Union.

The prospect that Whitford and Donahue could be right is not just encouraging at a point when American democracy is embattled. It is essential. The protection and extension of voting rights must always be the first priority. But if those voting rights are to have meaning, the elections in which votes are cast must be truly fair and genuinely competitive.

https://www.thenation.com/article/the-most-serious-challenge-to-gerrymandering-in-modern-times-reaches-the-supreme-court/



Offline Levorotatory

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Reply #9 on: October 04, 2017, 07:15:08 AM
Is there any other democracy where this sort of nonsense happens?   In Canada we have independent commissions that redraw electoral boundaries after every census.  Most other countries have some form of proportional representation that prevents these sorts of distortions regardless of how boundaries are drawn.



Offline Athos_131

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Reply #10 on: February 05, 2018, 11:40:21 PM

#BlackLivesMatter
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Offline Lois

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Reply #11 on: February 06, 2018, 12:48:23 AM
Is there any other democracy where this sort of nonsense happens?   In Canada we have independent commissions that redraw electoral boundaries after every census.  Most other countries have some form of proportional representation that prevents these sorts of distortions regardless of how boundaries are drawn.

No idea, but I agree that we should have an independent commission do this job.

I suspect one of the reasons that the GOP is becoming ever more extreme is they don't have to convince Democrats to vote for them.  This would politic back towards the center.



Offline Army of One

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Reply #12 on: February 06, 2018, 01:28:43 AM
Is there any other democracy where this sort of nonsense happens?   In Canada we have independent commissions that redraw electoral boundaries after every census.  Most other countries have some form of proportional representation that prevents these sorts of distortions regardless of how boundaries are drawn.
There have been accusations of it occurring in Australia, and indeed was pretty rife while Joh Bjelke-Petersen was Premier of Queensland, and despite the Electoral Commissions being by-and-large responsible for redistribution (although, that may be recent, and probably in light of ol' Joh's tactics). Indeed, during the most recent locals, the accusations were vocal, although in the minority.

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Offline Athos_131

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Reply #13 on: October 15, 2018, 12:37:11 AM
A senator snatched a student’s phone while being asked about Georgia voter registration uproar

Quote
“That’s U.S. Senator David Perdue. U.S. Senator David Perdue just snatched my phone because he won’t answer a question from one of his constituents,” the student can be heard saying as he follows Perdue for a short distance. “He’s trying to leave. He’s trying to leave because he won’t answer why he’s endorsing a candidate who’s trying to purge people from voting on the basis of their race.”

#Resist

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Offline Athos_131

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Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 01:35:52 AM

#BlackLivesMatter
Arrest The Cops Who Killed Breonna Taylor

#BanTheNaziFromKB


psiberzerker

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Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 04:02:24 AM
Want a good example (Of a bad political tool?)  Check out the shape of the 17th District:

« Last Edit: October 17, 2018, 04:07:02 AM by psiberzerker »



Offline Athos_131

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Reply #16 on: October 18, 2018, 01:08:13 AM

#BlackLivesMatter
Arrest The Cops Who Killed Breonna Taylor

#BanTheNaziFromKB


Offline Athos_131

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Reply #17 on: October 18, 2018, 01:11:17 AM

#BlackLivesMatter
Arrest The Cops Who Killed Breonna Taylor

#BanTheNaziFromKB


Offline Athos_131

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Reply #18 on: October 24, 2018, 01:38:00 AM
Exclusive: In Leaked Audio, Brian Kemp Expresses Concern Over Georgians Exercising Their Right to Vote

Quote
Brian Kemp, Georgia Secretary of State and the Republican nominee for Georgia governor, expressed at a ticketed campaign event that his Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams’ voter turnout operation “continues to concern us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote,” according to audio obtained by Rolling Stone.

Maybe don't support candidates who are worried about people exercising their right to vote.

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Arrest The Cops Who Killed Breonna Taylor

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Offline Jed_

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Reply #19 on: October 24, 2018, 02:21:49 AM
Want a good example (Of a bad political tool?)  Check out the shape of the 17th District:




It looks like a tilted Louisiana where the Mississippi delta got bigger.  OK, that’s not possible as the Mississippi delta is vanishing, not increasing.

I wonder what was that demographic in that ‘delta’ that it had to be included in ‘Louisiana’?