Has Trump Finally Entered the Death Spiral?Trump’s conviction, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, is that in times of trouble his salvation lies in becoming less presidential and breaking more rules. The hiring of Anthony Scaramucci is just the latest example.
For those who believed that the White House’s main problem was too many adults in the room, the appointment of Anthony Scaramucci is welcome news. Sean Spicer has resigned in protest, with little to show for his time other than sartorial upgrades. In brief, a role that normally goes to people with decades of experience in communications and government will go to a neophyte from Wall Street whose main qualification seems to be that he’s loyal to Donald Trump on cable TV and high-energy. As Scaramucci once told New York Magazine, “My middle name could be Shit-stirrer, except then my initials on my shirt would be A.S.S., and I can’t have that.” The phrase “death spiral” is starting to come to mind.
To be sure, you could argue that we’ve been here before. When Steve Bannon took over Trump’s campaign, conservative radio host Charlie Sykes compared it to entering a hospice phase with Trump wishing his campaign to die surrounded by loved ones. And we know how that turned out. So you could say that Trump is nothing but surprises. But Trump is also highly predictable. He promised repeatedly during the campaign that he could be presidential. But by early 2016 it was clear that he couldn’t, that no change would ever come. Chaos was going to be the norm. The question was always whether that chaos was controlled or not. More and more, “not” looks like the answer. Increasingly, Trump looks like Slim Pickens riding down with the missile, on the cusp of the final, sudden acceleration.
Trump appears to trust none of his staffers at this point, apart from close family, and that family gives dubious advice. Recall that son-in-law Jared Kushner was among those pressing for Trump to fire James Comey, while Bannon was among those counseling restraint. Following Kushner’s advice led Trump right into a prolonged date with Robert Mueller. This time, opposing the decision to hire Scaramucci were Spicer, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, and Bannon. Supporting it was, yes, Kushner, Ivanka Trump, and—according to reports—Hope Hicks.
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If Trump insists on disregarding sound advice from his staffers in favor of dumb advice from family, his decisions will get worse, not that they were great to begin with, and more and more people will leave the White House only to be replaced by less competent hires. While the lure of the White House is huge and someone will always say yes to a job there, the quality of newcomers is going to plummet. People see how poorly Trump treats his hires. (This wasn’t so clear back when Trump was in the private sector, and employees had to sign onerous non-disclosure agreements.) When they displease him, he lets it be known in public. This week, he even told The New York Times that he regretted making Jeff Sessions attorney general.
As competence diminishes and the dependence on family increases, performance will get even worse, and Trump will increasingly follow his whims. Indications are strong that Trump itches daily to fire Mueller, which would set off a giant mess. “If Trump doesn’t fire Mueller, it will only be because every other day he’s talked out of following his instincts,” writes Rich Lowry in the National Review. And we can see now how much that advice matters. If Trump goes that far, even Republicans will start to sour openly on their president. Partisanship runs strong, and checks on the White House come far too late when the majority party is that of the sitting president, especially if it’s the Republican Party. But they come eventually. Republicans live here, too.
And the descent just feels speedier these days. Nearly every week of the Trump presidency has been dizzying. “He has trouble putting together two good days,” observed Axios’s Mike Allen back in May. “Some of his friends tell me they’d now settle for one. But today we’re fast approaching the point when the goal is becoming two good hours, and friends will settle for one. Or maybe zero. Zero is starting to look pretty good. You can blame the press or the deep state for Trump’s ceaseless woes, but Trump remains his own worst foil. Trump’s conviction, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, is that in times of trouble his salvation lies in becoming less presidential and breaking more rules. The hiring of Scaramucci is just the latest example.
Years after the death of Mao Zedong, who had led China to successive disasters after taking office, those who’d been his loyalists explained that Mao had been proved right so often during the years of civil war that they began to ascribe almost supernatural wisdom to him. This faith persisted even as things were going off the rails. You could say that something similar is true of Trump’s most fanatical loyalists, like internet radio host Bill Mitchell. They saw Trump defy all expectations and believed he must be a god. Worse, Trump himself saw, and appeared to believe the same thing. And now it’s speeding him to the exit.
Trump always misunderstood the power of his issues: immigration, trade, and war. He failed to see that he’d won the nomination—and perhaps the presidency—as soon as he’d broken rudely, and boldly, with the establishment in the summer of 2015. Instead, he spent the following year obstinately testing the loyalty of his followers by engaging in spectacular and non-stop self-sabotage, and crediting it with his victories. If Trump exits his job in a matter of months, which suddenly feels weirdly possible, we’ll all be left scratching our heads, trying to figure out what the hell it was all about, and wondering how someone who sold Americans on a near-revolutionary break with convention could win it all and lose it all so fast.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/has-donald-trump-finally-entered-the-death-spiral