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Lottery odds & probability.

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toeinh20

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on: August 05, 2014, 10:45:14 PM
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 05:53:42 AM by toeinh2o »



Offline redhatlover

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Reply #1 on: August 05, 2014, 10:57:12 PM
In the big lotteries, your odds of winning on a single ticket is one out of 47! divided by 42! (47 X 46 X 45 X 44 X 43) or one out of 184,072,680.  If you by 100 tickets with different numbers your odds increase 100 times. For the Powerball lotteries, you multiply the above number by 42 (7,731,052,560)  Now you know why the lotteries rake in so much!

I am like Charlie the Tuna.  I don't want women with good taste, I want women who taste good.


Offline insatiable

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Reply #2 on: August 05, 2014, 11:21:01 PM
Actually Toe is right w.r.t winning the grand prize. In which case each ticket is an independent random event.

But many lotteries also give away smaller prizes based on other variables, like getting the series right or getting first n number of numbers correct, in which case though the odds do get improved but winnings also are diminished.

A beginner class in permutations and combinations, is highly recommended. It's not only useful while dealing with lotteries or other gambling events, but also in business and general day to day life, where it helps in taking a more rational decision.

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Offline redhatlover

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Reply #3 on: August 06, 2014, 03:25:44 PM

If you by 100 tickets with different numbers your odds increase 100 times. For the Powerball lotteries, you multiply the above number by 42 (7,731,052,560)  Now you know why the lotteries rake in so much!


Please explain.

You certainly have a hundred more chances to win, but that is not the same thing as being 100 times more *likely* to win.  Is it?



Basically in the calculation you divide both sides by the same number as in any other mathematical problem.  If you bought a million tickets, your odds would improve to one in 7731 (still not a favorable situation).   If you bought 3,865,526,280 tickets, your chances would increase to one in two.

You may notice that all odds posted are in the form of one in X or X to one.  The above formula is how that number is derived.

The basics of probability is rather simple.  If you flip a coin you have a one in two of it coming up heads (heads or tails).  if you flip a coin twice, you have you have a one in four chance of it coming up heads (heads/heads, heads/tails, tails/heads, or tails/tails).  If you flip it four times, you will double your chances of it coming up heads sequentially.  The odds on the lottery works the same, except you are dealing with an extremely large number.

Insatiable is correct in that there are numerous ways to win in the large lotteries.  These permutations increase your chance of getting a lesser prize.  The above discussion is only referring to the jackpot prize of all numbers matching.

I am like Charlie the Tuna.  I don't want women with good taste, I want women who taste good.


Offline watcher1

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Reply #4 on: August 06, 2014, 03:49:50 PM
The odds are if you keep the one dollar in your pocket, your odds of losing at the game is zero.  8)

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Offline staci

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Reply #5 on: August 06, 2014, 05:37:48 PM
I read that if you get a New York City phone book and one from Chicago and Los Angeles, cut out each name in all of them, put them in a box and pull out one name, that would equal the odds of winning the Powerball.

one of the originals


joe_and_michelle

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Reply #6 on: August 06, 2014, 05:41:02 PM
She's right Toe, but I see your reasoning.

Simplifying the odds thing...

Pick a number between 1 and 10.   The odds of you choosing the number I'm thinking of is 1 in 10, right, or 10%, which is derived from 1 divided by 10.
Now, pick 2 numbers between 1 and 10.   The odds of you picking the number I'm thinking of is 2 in 10, or (2 divided by 10) is 20%.      
Your chance doubled.







Offline watcher1

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Reply #7 on: August 06, 2014, 06:30:36 PM

If you bought 3,865,526,280 tickets, your chances would increase to one in two.


You need to buy $3.8 billion tickets to have a 50/50 chance?  LOL.  Now *that* is a rigged game!




Why you never find the wealthy playing the lottery.  They prefer better odds.

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coacheric

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Reply #8 on: August 06, 2014, 06:31:48 PM
One of the first big Lotto payouts in Michigan was, if I remember correctly, for about 3 million +.  It was won by a millionaire. 



Offline redhatlover

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Reply #9 on: August 06, 2014, 06:38:26 PM

If you bought 3,865,526,280 tickets, your chances would increase to one in two.


You need to buy $3.8 billion tickets to have a 50/50 chance?  LOL.  Now *that* is a rigged game!




It is not rigged.  Rigging is when you predetermine the winning numbers.  You just have to read the fine print.

I have a better lottery I call it the ME lottery.  I pay out the same as the State of Michigan lottery, and everyone is a winner.  How it works:  You give me a dollar and I give you 50 cents.  That's why Dave Ramsey and others call the lotteries "Stupid Tax".  I see so many people on welfare days lining up to get their numbers that you can't get into the grocery and liquor stores.  Like Watcher said, you don't lose if you don't play!

I am like Charlie the Tuna.  I don't want women with good taste, I want women who taste good.


Offline Athos_131

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Reply #10 on: August 06, 2014, 06:43:32 PM

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joe_and_michelle

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Reply #11 on: August 06, 2014, 07:47:27 PM
but that it's a sequence of numbers complicates things

It's the same principle, just on a MUCH larger scale.   That it is a sequence of numbers doesn't factor in.   The sequence of number just skyrockets the odds.  It's still an exact sequence of numbers you're trying to pick.


You're still both right, Toe.   It's just a different way to look at it.   It's a classic "glass half empty, glass half full".

I need the mathematical explanation for why that is so.

Powerball odds are 1 in 175,223,510.   
So, with one ticket the odds are 175,223,510 divided by 1, which is of course 1 in 175,223,510
buy 2 tickets, it's 175,223,510 divided by 2, which is 1 in 87,611,755 (her odds doubled)
buy 3 tickets, it's 175,223,510 divided by 3, which is 1 in 58,407,836.66 (her odds tripled)
If she bought half the number (87,611,755) of ticket, it would be 175,223,510 divided by 87,611,755 which is 1 in 2.

You certainly have a hundred more chances to win, but that is not the same thing as being 100 times more *likely* to win.  Is it?
Yes, mathematically speaking she is exactly 100 times more likely to win when buying 100 instead of 1.
Though, she is still very unlikely to win even with those 1 in 17,522,235.1 odds.



How are the odds fig'd??   RHL was close, but you have to factor in a bit more...
In Powerball you pick 5 white balls between 1 and 59.
you also must pick 1 red ball between 1 and 35.

It doesn't matter in which order the white balls are picked, so your odds of picking one of the white balls on your first number is 5 in 59.   
Now there are only 58 balls left, the odds of hitting that is 4 in 58.
57 balls are left with 3 balls left.  Odds of hitting one of the them is 3 in 57.
Then 2 in 56.
Then 1 in 55.

This is calculated by taking multiplying all the chances together (59 x 58 x 57 x 56 x 55) or 600,766,320, THEN dividing by the number of picks (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) or 120.
This leaves us at 5,006,386.   
Now, the odds of hitting the red ball is 1 in 35.   So, multiply 35 by the odds of getting the white balls.
35 x  5,006,386 = 175,223,510.






joe_and_michelle

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Reply #12 on: August 06, 2014, 07:49:32 PM



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Reply #13 on: August 06, 2014, 07:57:37 PM
Me: Let's play poker.

Friend: oh, you gamble?

Me: not the way I play.

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Offline insatiable

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Reply #14 on: August 06, 2014, 08:13:19 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics


One can get that above page just by googling "mathematics of lottery".

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Offline redhatlover

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Reply #15 on: August 06, 2014, 10:27:08 PM
Sorry, my numbers were based on the Michigan lottery.  I don't play powerball and didn't realize how many numbers there were.

I am like Charlie the Tuna.  I don't want women with good taste, I want women who taste good.


_priapism

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Reply #16 on: September 26, 2019, 03:40:11 AM
Someone in Cedar Park, Texas, outside of Austin, won the $157,500,000 cash option jackpot for Mega Millions last night.  I have bought a lottery ticket in that store.  Not last night, but still.  LOL.